CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-09-29T22:40:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2013 Sep 30 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30930
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Sep 2013, 1209UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Sep 2013 until 02 Oct 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Sep 2013 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 007
COMMENT: A yet unnumbered, flux emerging region in the South-Eastern solar quadrant
might develop flaring potential in the coming days. A large filament in
the solar north-western hemisphere erupted Sunday evening around 21:45UT.
The event was associated with a long duration C1.2 flare peaking at 23:39.
The GOES proton flux level has crossed the event threshold (> 10 pfu for
10 MeV). LASCO observed a full-halo CME. In STEREO-B Cor2, the plane-of the
sky speed is of the order of 600km/s. In the coming 3 days, we expect
quiet geomagnetic conditions. The halo-CME of midnight Sept 29/30 is
expected to arrive midnight October 2/3.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 037, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Sep 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 103
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007
AK WINGST : 003
ESTIMATED AP : 003
ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END
BT
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:Issued: 2013 Oct 01 1251 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31001
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Oct 2013, 1210UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Oct 2013 until 03 Oct 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 026
COMMENT: The flaring probability is low. Only the newly emerging active regions on
East limb and and NOAA AR 1855 have a small chance for a C-class flare.
NOAA AR 1855 (now at central meridian, northern hemisphere) is a new flux
emerging region and has developed a transequatorial connection with an
old decaying active region in the Northern hemisphere. The arrival of the
CME of midnight Sept 29/30 is still expected for midnight Oct 2/3 with an
uncertainty range of +/- 6 hours. The CME is expected to trigger a minor
geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) early Oct 3. Meanwhile the 10 MeV proton levels
are still above the event threshold as a consequence of the same event.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 032, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Sep 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 105
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003
AK WINGST : 002
ESTIMATED AP : 002
ESTIMATED ISN : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #
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